Alaska Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dan Sullivan an 85% chance of winning the Alaska Senate 2014 primary. Dan Sullivan won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Dan Sullivan — 85% model odds (won)
2. Mead Treadwell — 9% model odds
3. John M. Jaramillo — 3% model odds
4. Joe Miller — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts