Michigan House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bob Lorinser a 64% chance of winning the Michigan House 2024 primary. Callie Barr won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Bob Lorinser — 64% model odds
  2. Callie Barr — 36% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts