Arizona House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Andrei Cherny a 29% chance of winning the Arizona House 2024 primary. Amish Shah won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Andrei Cherny — 29% model odds
2. Marlene Galán-Woods — 29% model odds
3. Conor O'Callaghan — 21% model odds
4. Amish Shah — 13% model odds (won)
5. Andrew Horne — 7% model odds
6. Kurt Kroemer — 1% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts