Alaska House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nancy Dahlstrom a 52% chance of winning the Alaska House 2024 primary. Nick Begich won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Nancy Dahlstrom — 52% model odds
  2. Nick Begich — 38% model odds (won)
  3. Matthew Salisbury — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts