Alaska House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mary Sattler Peltola a 75% chance of winning the Alaska House 2024 primary. Mary Sattler Peltola won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mary Sattler Peltola — 75% model odds (won)
  2. Eric Hafner — 25% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts