Indiana House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mark Messmer a 41% chance of winning the Indiana House 2024 primary. Mark Messmer won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mark Messmer — 41% model odds (won)
  2. Richard Moss — 38% model odds
  3. John Hostettler — 5% model odds
  4. Luke Misner — 3% model odds
  5. Jim Case — 3% model odds
  6. Jeremy Heath — 3% model odds
  7. Dominick Kavanaugh — 3% model odds
  8. Kristi Risk — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts