Indiana House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chuck Goodrich a 53% chance of winning the Indiana House 2024 primary. Victoria Spartz won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Chuck Goodrich — 53% model odds
  2. Victoria Spartz — 32% model odds (won)
  3. Larry Savage Jr. — 3% model odds
  4. Matthew Peiffer — 3% model odds
  5. Raju Chinthala — 2% model odds
  6. Max Engling — 2% model odds
  7. Mark Hurt — 2% model odds
  8. L.D. Powell — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts