Indiana House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Marlin Stutzman a 53% chance of winning the Indiana House 2024 primary. Marlin Stutzman won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Marlin Stutzman — 53% model odds (won)
  2. Wendy Davis — 13% model odds
  3. Tim Smith — 12% model odds
  4. Andy Zay — 6% model odds
  5. Grant Bucher — 4% model odds
  6. Jon Kenworthy — 4% model odds
  7. Mike Felker — 4% model odds
  8. Eric Whalen — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts