Kentucky House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Todd Kelly a 61% chance of winning the Kentucky House 2024 primary. Randy Cravens won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Todd Kelly — 61% model odds
  2. Randy Cravens — 20% model odds (won)
  3. Jonathan Richardson — 7% model odds
  4. Don B. Pratt — 7% model odds
  5. Shauna Rudd — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts