Kentucky House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Harold Rogers a 47% chance of winning the Kentucky House 2024 primary. Harold Rogers won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Harold Rogers — 47% model odds (won)
  2. Dana Edwards — 43% model odds
  3. Brandon Monhollen — 5% model odds
  4. David Kraftchak — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts