Kentucky House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Thomas Massie a 72% chance of winning the Kentucky House 2024 primary. Thomas Massie won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Thomas Massie — 72% model odds (won)
  2. Eric Deters — 18% model odds
  3. Michael Mcginnis — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts