Virginia House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gerald E. Connolly an 89% chance of winning the Virginia House 2024 primary. Gerald E. Connolly won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Gerald E. Connolly — 89% model odds (won)
  2. Mike L. Van Meter — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts