Virginia House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave H. Morgan Griffith a 100% chance of winning the Virginia House 2024 primary. H. Morgan Griffith won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. H. Morgan Griffith — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Karen G. H. Baker — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts