Texas House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Darrell Day a 50% chance of winning the Texas House 2024 primary. Julie Johnson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Darrell Day — 50% model odds
  2. Julie Johnson — 50% model odds (won)
  3. Kevin A. Hale — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts