Texas House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jake Ellzey a 100% chance of winning the Texas House 2024 primary. Jake Ellzey won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jake Ellzey — 100% model odds (won)
  2. John Love Iii — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts