Texas House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dan Crenshaw an 89% chance of winning the Texas House 2024 primary. Dan Crenshaw won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Dan Crenshaw — 89% model odds (won)
  2. Peter Filler — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts