Pennsylvania House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Cartwright a 69% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2024 primary. Rob Bresnahan, Jr. won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Matt Cartwright — 69% model odds
  2. Rob Bresnahan, Jr. — 31% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts