Pennsylvania House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ashley Ehasz a 56% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2024 primary. Brian K. Fitzpatrick won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Ashley Ehasz — 56% model odds
  2. Brian K. Fitzpatrick — 44% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts