New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brandon Williams a 95% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. John W. Mannion won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Brandon Williams — 95% model odds
  2. John W. Mannion — 5% model odds (won)
  3. Blank — 0% model odds
  4. Brandon Williams — 0% model odds
  5. Scattering — 0% model odds
  6. Void — 0% model odds
  7. John W. Mannion — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts