New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elise M. Stefanik a 100% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Elise M. Stefanik won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Elise M. Stefanik — 100% model odds (won)
2. Blank — 0% model odds
3. Elise M. Stefanik — 0% model odds
4. Paula Collins — 0% model odds
5. Scattering — 0% model odds
6. Void — 0% model odds
7. Paula Collins — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts