New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul Tonko a 100% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Paul Tonko won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Paul Tonko — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Blank — 0% model odds
  3. Kevin M. Waltz — 0% model odds
  4. Kevin M. Waltz — 0% model odds
  5. Scattering — 0% model odds
  6. Void — 0% model odds
  7. Paul Tonko — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts