New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Riley a 79% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Josh Riley won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Josh Riley — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Marcus J. Molinaro — 21% model odds
  3. Blank — 0% model odds
  4. Marcus J. Molinaro — 0% model odds
  5. Scattering — 0% model odds
  6. Void — 0% model odds
  7. Josh Riley — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts