New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Ryan a 95% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Patrick Ryan won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Patrick Ryan — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Alison Esposito — 5% model odds
  3. Blank — 0% model odds
  4. Alison Esposito — 0% model odds
  5. Scattering — 0% model odds
  6. Void — 0% model odds
  7. Patrick Ryan — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts