New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mondaire L. Jones an 89% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Michael Lawler won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Mondaire L. Jones — 89% model odds
  2. Michael Lawler — 11% model odds (won)
  3. Anthony Frascone — 0% model odds
  4. Blank — 0% model odds
  5. Michael Lawler — 0% model odds
  6. Scattering — 0% model odds
  7. Void — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts