New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 100% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Blank — 0% model odds
  3. Tina Forte — 0% model odds
  4. Scattering — 0% model odds
  5. Tina Forte — 0% model odds
  6. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts