New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jerrold Nadler a 95% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Jerrold Nadler won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jerrold Nadler — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Jerrold Nadler — 5% model odds
  3. Blank — 0% model odds
  4. Michael K. Zumbluskas — 0% model odds
  5. Scattering — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts