New York House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John P. Avlon a 50% chance of winning the New York House 2024 primary. Nick Lalota won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John P. Avlon — 50% model odds
2. Nick Lalota — 50% model odds (won)
3. Blank — 0% model odds
4. John P. Avlon — 0% model odds
5. Nick Lalota — 0% model odds
6. Scattering — 0% model odds
7. Void — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts