New Mexico House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gabe Vasquez a 62% chance of winning the New Mexico House 2024 primary. Gabe Vasquez won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Gabe Vasquez — 62% model odds (won)
  2. Yvette Herrell — 38% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts