New Jersey House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mikie Sherrill a 100% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2024 primary. Mikie Sherrill won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mikie Sherrill — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Joseph Belnome — 0% model odds
  3. Joshua Lanzara — 0% model odds
  4. Lily Benavides — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts