New Jersey House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Thomas H. Kean, Jr. a 63% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2024 primary. Thomas H. Kean, Jr. won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Thomas H. Kean, Jr. — 63% model odds (won)
  2. Sue Altman — 37% model odds
  3. Andrew Black — 0% model odds
  4. Lana Leguia — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts