New Jersey House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Gottheimer a 100% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2024 primary. Josh Gottheimer won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Josh Gottheimer — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Aamir Arif — 0% model odds
  3. Beau Forte — 0% model odds
  4. James Tosone — 0% model odds
  5. Mary Jo Guinchard — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts