New Jersey House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Herb Conaway a 95% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2024 primary. Herb Conaway won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Herb Conaway — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Rajesh Mohan — 5% model odds
  3. Chris Russomanno — 0% model odds
  4. Douglas Anthony Wynn — 0% model odds
  5. Justin R. Barbera — 0% model odds
  6. Steven Welzer — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts