New Jersey House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jefferson Van Drew an 89% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2024 primary. Jefferson Van Drew won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jefferson Van Drew — 89% model odds (won)
  2. Joseph F. Salerno — 11% model odds
  3. Thomas Cannavo — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts