Minnesota House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ilhan Omar a 95% chance of winning the Minnesota House 2024 primary. Ilhan Omar won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ilhan Omar — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Dalia Al-Aqidi — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts