Iowa House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ashley Hinson a 56% chance of winning the Iowa House 2024 primary. Ashley Hinson won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ashley Hinson — 56% model odds (won)
  2. Sarah Corkery — 44% model odds
  3. Jody Madlom Puffett — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts