Hawaii House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jill N. Tokuda a 100% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2024 primary. Jill N. Tokuda won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jill N. Tokuda — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Aaron Toman — 0% model odds
  3. Blank Votes — 0% model odds
  4. Over Votes — 0% model odds
  5. Randall Kelly Meyer — 0% model odds
  6. Steve Bond — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts