Florida House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Maria Elvira Salazar a 95% chance of winning the Florida House 2024 primary. Maria Elvira Salazar won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Maria Elvira Salazar — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Lucia Baez-Geller — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts