Arizona House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elijah Crane a 69% chance of winning the Arizona House 2024 primary. Elijah Crane won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Elijah Crane — 69% model odds (won)
  2. Jonathan Nez — 31% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts