Alaska House 2024 — Model Retrospective
The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mary Sattler Peltola a 40% chance of winning the Alaska House 2024 primary. Nick Begich won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.
- Mary Sattler Peltola — 40% model odds
- Nick Begich — 40% model odds (won)
- Eric Hafner — 20% model odds
- John Wayne Howe — 0% model odds