Alaska House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mary Sattler Peltola a 40% chance of winning the Alaska House 2024 primary. Nick Begich won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Mary Sattler Peltola — 40% model odds
  2. Nick Begich — 40% model odds (won)
  3. Eric Hafner — 20% model odds
  4. John Wayne Howe — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts