Alabama House 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Caroleene Dobson a 100% chance of winning the Alabama House 2024 primary. Shomari Figures won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Caroleene Dobson — 100% model odds
  2. Shomari Figures — 0% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts